Bitcoin and money supply relationship: An analysis of selected country economies

Bitcoin has become quite known after the 2008 economic crisis and the COVID-19 health crisis. For some, these cryptocurrencies constitute rebellion against the existing system as governments encourage uncontrolled expansions in the money supply;for some others, it is a quick source of income. Undeniably, the volume of the crypto money market has grown considerably in recent years, regardless of the reasoning of the people who invest and trade in this field. At this point, one of the most important questions to be investigated is "what variables have caused the tremendous growth in the crypto money quantities in recent years?" This study tests the assumption that changes in cryptocurrencies are affected by changes in national currencies. Thus, the Bitcoin price is the dependent variable, and M1 monetary supply changes in the USA, European Union and Japanese economies are considered independent variables. The variables in this study were tested using the time-varying Granger causality method. The results obtained from this study confirm the philosophy of Bitcoin's emergence and the possibility that it can be a hedge against the inflationary effects of money, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The interconnectedness across risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the interconnectedness across the risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul. This study also examines the causal impact of global implied volatility indices on the risk appetite of these investor groups.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a novel time-varying frequency connectedness framework of Chatziantoniou et al. and a new time-varying Granger causality test with a recursive evolving procedure by Shi et al. over June 2008 and July 2022.FindingsThe results show a high level of interconnectedness across the risk appetite of different investor types. The sizable spillovers to domestic types of investors either occur from professional or foreign investors, indicating the long-term dominant effect of foreign and more qualified investors on the domestic investors in Borsa Istanbul. The authors provide significant evidence of causality from the global implied volatility to the Borsa Istanbul risk appetite indices, which are getting stronger after the COVID-19 outbreak.Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the authors analyze the risk appetite sub-indices of various types of investors to reveal behavioral distinctions and interconnectedness across them. The authors use a novel econometric framework to assess investors' risk appetite in different investment horizons in a time-varying system. Together with volatility index (VIX), the authors also use volatilities of oil (OVX), gold (GVZ) and currency (EVZ), considering the information transmission not only from stock markets but also energy, metals and currency markets. The present data set covers significant financial crises, socioeconomic events and the COVID-19 outbreak.

The interconnectedness across risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the interconnectedness across the risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul. This study also examines the causal impact of global implied volatility indices on the risk appetite of these investor groups. Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a novel time-varying frequency connectedness framework of Chatziantoniou et al. and a new time-varying Granger causality test with a recursive evolving procedure by Shi et al. over June 2008 and July 2022. FindingsThe results show a high level of interconnectedness across the risk appetite of different investor types. The sizable spillovers to domestic types of investors either occur from professional or foreign investors, indicating the long-term dominant effect of foreign and more qualified investors on the domestic investors in Borsa Istanbul. The authors provide significant evidence of causality from the global implied volatility to the Borsa Istanbul risk appetite indices, which are getting stronger after the COVID-19 outbreak. Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the authors analyze the risk appetite sub-indices of various types of investors to reveal behavioral distinctions and interconnectedness across them. The authors use a novel econometric framework to assess investors' risk appetite in different investment horizons in a time-varying system. Together with volatility index (VIX), the authors also use volatilities of oil (OVX), gold (GVZ) and currency (EVZ), considering the information transmission not only from stock markets but also energy, metals and currency markets. The present data set covers significant financial crises, socioeconomic events and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Can digital economic attention spillover to financial markets? Evidence from the time-varying Granger test

The digital economy is pervasive, all-encompassing, and a pan-industrial revolution. This paper pioneers constructing a digital economy concern index by extracting the web search volumes of keywords through crawler technology and analyzes the dynamic causal relationship with the Chinese stock markets via time-varying Granger tests. The results reveal that digital economy attention has a significant predictive effect on stock prices in a time-varying pattern and that the causal spillover varies across industry segments, with higher success rates and longer duration of causal detection under recursive algorithms. Moreover, the causal impact of digital economy attention on stock prices is generally limited in sluggish market states, mainly reflected during the COVID-19 pandemic and again after the epidemic had passed for some time with significant causality. This paper provides new evidence and analytical perspectives on the performance of the digital economy in financial markets, informing the digital transformation of various industries and investment decisions of investors.

The Analysis of Causality and Risk Spillover between Crude Oil and China's Agricultural Futures.

This paper aims to apply the time-varying Granger causality test (TVGC) and the DY Spillover Index (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012) to measure the Granger causality and dynamic risk spillover effects of the international crude oil futures market on China's agricultural commodity futures market from the perspectives of return and volatility spillovers. Empirical evidence relating to the TVGC test suggests the existence of unidirectional Granger causality between crude oil futures and agricultural product futures. This relationship shows a strong time-varying property, in particular for sudden or extreme events such as financial crises and natural disasters. On the other hand, the volatility spillover in crude oil and agricultural product futures markets responds asymmetrically and bidirectionally according to the result of the DY Spillover index, and the periodicity of total volatility spillover correlates closely with the occurrence of global economic events, which indicates that the spillover effect between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures markets will be exacerbated in turbulent financial and economic times. Such findings are expected to help in formulating policy recommendations, portfolio design, and risk-management decisions.

Exploring the bidirectional causality between green markets and economic policy: evidence from the time-varying Granger test.

The vigorous development of green markets and the effective mitigation of economic policy fluctuations are current hotspots that intrigue our interest in exploring the causal relationships between green market returns and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Green bonds, corporate environmental responsibility, green technology investment, and the carbon trading market are our research objects to comprehensively understand the interaction among them, from both macro and micro perspectives. Considering the importance of temporal heterogeneity and spillover direction in causation, we employ the time-varying Granger causality method to obtain bidirectional real-time identification. We find that green market returns exhibit a time-varying bidirectional causality with EPU over most of the sample period. In contrast, green markets are more a risk spillover than a recipient. Notably, this causality is vulnerable to exogenous financial risks, especially structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this paper provides insights into the deep-seated causes of price fluctuations, volatile market uncertainty, and the interaction mechanism between them, as well as implications for market participants and policymakers.

The bubble contagion effect of COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from crude oil and gold markets.

This paper examines the causal relationship between crude oil and gold spot prices to assess how the economic impact of COVID-19 has affected them. We analyze West Texas Light crude oil (WTI) and gold prices from January 4, 2010, to May 4, 2020. We detect common periods of mild explosivity in WTI and gold markets. More importantly, we find a bilateral contagion effect of bubbles in oil and gold markets during the recent COVID-19 outbreak.